The NPR article, “2019 Was the 2nd-Hottest Year On Record, According to NASA And NOAA” was the inspiration for this project. The article mentions how increasing global temperatures have become a long-term trend that people should be more aware of (Hersher, 2020). It’s believed the increase in temperature since the mid-20th century is due to greenhouse gas emissions, and researchers predict the upward trend to continue, regardless of the progress desired from establishing the Paris Agreement (Hersher, 2020). Past data can help raise understanding of trends, but since temperatures are dependent on emissions, it’s harder to forecast without knowing how society will react once they are more aware this issue (Hersher, 2020). The article closes by explaining how different regions of Earth are impacted by the increasing temperatures in different ways, from shrinking ice caps in the Arctic to higher flood risks and heat waves in the northern hemisphere (Hersher, 2020).

 

The data used to create these visualizations came from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Visualizations 1 and 2) and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (Visualization 3). The variables used in the visualizations are date and temperature anomaly. “Anomaly” is defined as “deviation from the common rule” (Merriam-Webster). Therefore, each anomaly, or deviation plotted, signifies the calculated difference between the respective year’s temperature (whether in February or annually) and the mean temperature. From the NASA dataset, the years range from 1880-2019, while in the NOAA dataset, the years range from 1895-2019. The first and third visualizations evaluate years and the second visualization evaluates months. Every visualization uses the colors of blue and orange in a spectrum to emphasize when the anomaly was below the mean (blue) and above the mean (orange). The stronger the color towards its pure form, the larger the anomaly.

 

The three visualizations included in the dashboard each display a unique way of tracking temperature over time. In the first visualization, land-ocean temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere for the month of February are shown by a line chart. February is the month chosen to be evaluated because it is my birth month. The x-axis shows the year, ranging from 1880-2019, while the y-axis shows the magnitude of the anomaly. The mean temperature used in the first visualization is the average of the annual temperatures for the month of February in the years 1951-1980. This baseline is shown by the solid dark line in the center of the visualization. Looking at the visualization, deviations are frequently below the mean until about the 1970s when we start to see a trend in increasing deviations from the mean.

 

The second visualization is a heat map that also shows land-ocean temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere, but includes every month of the year. Each column of rectangles is a different year, while each row is a month. As before, the anomaly is calculated by taking the difference between the temperature for the respective year and the mean temperature (the average of the annual temperatures for the respective month in the years 1951-1980). In this visualization, it is very obvious to see how the deviation changes from values that are below the mean to values that are above the mean, symbolized by the differences in color over time.

 

The third visualization tracks annual temperature anomalies as well, but is specified for the state of Oregon. The x-axis begins with the year 1895, and the y-axis still shows the magnitude of the anomaly. While a different data set was used to create this visualization, the mean temperature used to calculate the Celsius anomalies is also between the years 1951-1980. This visualization has a similar story to the first one; although there were more frequent deviations above the mean compared to the first visualization, around the 1970s we start to see the deviations continue on an upward trend. A forecast with a 95% confidence interval was included to predict the size of the anomaly in the year 2030. Using the data provided for the state of Oregon, the mean temperature, and an online calculator, the forecasted deviation from the mean temperature is 1.69 degrees Fahrenheit in 2030 (Celsius to Fahrenheit conversion). Since this is below the recent spike seen in the visualization, it could possibly aid in the argument regarding the cyclical nature of global temperatures as discussed in class.

 

In lecture, climate change shown through increasing global temperatures and rising sea levels was discussed. As global temperatures continue on an upward trend, it is possible that there is a cyclical trend to the data. Scientists focus on the anomaly rather than absolute temperatures. According to NASA’s Frequently Asked Questions section, this is because the anomalies compare how much warmer or cooler it is relative to the average over a 30-year period and help reduce uncertainty (Data.GISS). If the absolute temperature increases by 2 degrees in a year, so does the anomaly, because the base year remains unchanged for both points in time (Data.GISS). As mentioned in lecture, rising sea levels do not receive as much emphasis because people can move inland as a temporary solution.

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References

Celsius to Fahrenheit conversion. (n.d.). Retrieved January 29, 2020, from

https://www.rapidtables.com/convert/temperature/celsius-to-fahrenheit.html

Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series. [Data Set]. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

Combined Land-Surface Air and Sea-Surface Water Temperature Anomalies for Northern Hemisphere. [Data set]. NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Data.GISS: GISTEMP -- Frequently Asked Questions. (n.d.). Retrieved January 29, 2020, from

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/faq/#q101

Hersher, R. (2020, January 15). 2019 Was The 2nd-Hottest Year On Record, According To NASA

And NOAA. Retrieved January 16, 2020, from

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/15/796651503/2019-was-the-2nd-hottest-year-on-record-according-to-nasa-and-noaa

Merriam-Webster. (n.d.). Anomaly. In Merriam-Webster.com dictionary. Retrieved January 29,

2020, from https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anomaly

NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Statewide Time

Series, published January 2020, retrieved on January 19, 2020

from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/