An article published in 2017 from The Hill notes how Penn State researchers wanted to reexamine projected demand for food; Zeigler disagrees with their suggestion and discusses the impacts of climate change, economic growth, and agricultural productivity to support her counterargument (Zeigler, 2017). While the researchers focus on conserving ecosystems over agricultural production, Zeigler believes more focus is needed on agricultural productivity and reducing losses while conserving natural resources (Zeigler, 2017). She states that increasing total factor productivity (TFP) can increase efficiency and sustainability, and lowering projections may hurt the current research and development in these areas (Zeigler, 2017). Zeigler highlights her organization’s research on TFP growth, explaining that global growth is not meeting the levels needed to double agricultural productivity by 2050 (Zeigler, 2017).

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From this article, one may wonder how agricultural productivity is determined (beyond the author’s brief explanation), how input factors vary globally, and how global productivity has changed over time. The visualizations in this project use data from the US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. The full data set, International Agricultural Productivity, is composed of multiple data files – only the “Agricultural TFP growth indices for geographic regions…” data set is used in this project. It includes information for eight different regions of the world – Asia (excluding West), Europe (except USSR), Former USSR, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America, Oceania, Sub-Saharan Africa, and West Asia and North Africa. The other variables are each region’s productivity indices, total inputs, total outputs, factor shares, and then levels of each individual factor (land, labor, livestock, machinery, fertilizer, and feed).

 

According to the USDA ERS website, total factor productivity compares agricultural outputs with inputs, the goal being for growth of outputs to be faster than growth of inputs so TFP continues to increase (“International Agricultural Productivity”). In calculating total factor productivity, the six factors mentioned are weighted by cost shares to estimate total input growth. These weights differ by region, shown in the first visualization. Each of the factors with their respective weight (the measure), along with each region, are the variables. Filtering by region, the table shows each of the factor’s weights in descending order. Overall, the most heavily weighted are either feed or fertilizer, while machinery and land are the least weighted.

 

The second visualization, a line chart, displays the agricultural productivity indices for each region from 1961 to 2016. The variables include region, year, and index value. These values are not the TFP ratio explained in The Hill article; they are the level of total factor productivity relative to the base value of 100 in 2005 (“International Agricultural Productivity”). This means for any value above 100, TFP is greater than the base year by a certain percentage, while values below 100 mean that TFP is lower than the base year by a certain percentage. Therefore, comparisons cannot be made about absolute global productivity levels (ratios) but rather how productivity is growing between years (“International Agricultural Productivity”). Looking at the visualization, Asia has been increasing its agricultural productivity relative to the base year by the largest percentage. The area formerly known as the USSR has made the second-largest percentage increase in efficiency, while Sub-Saharan Africa slightly decreased their efficiency in 2016 relative to 2005.

 

The third visualization is a bar chart comparing the level of input factors for each global region, filtered by factor of the viewer’s choosing. The variables are each region previously mentioned and the six factors discussed, each measured differently. The bar chart compares the regional levels of each factor, but can only show the associated measure in the tooltip. Feed is measured in thousand megacalories, fertilizer in metric tonnes, land in thousand hectares, labor in thousand persons, livestock in thousand cattle-equivalents, and machinery in number of tractor-equivalents. Filtering for each factor, the bar chart shows Asia dominating every category except land, where Sub-Saharan Africa is the leader. Latin America and the Caribbean is in the top half for each category as well, while Oceania is commonly in the lower half. This shows that the amount of land, population, and material access in each region plays a large role in determining total input growth.

 

Improvements in agricultural productivity are needed, but the impact this innovation has on the planet cannot be ignored. An article from The Guardian highlights the need for increased food production, but instead of focusing on efficiencies in total productivity, efficiency in how this output is produced needs more attention. Increasing land and fertilizer usage are not the best options – alternatives such as agroecology and organic farming, permaculture, biodynamics, and urban farming are ways we can meet demand while reducing the harmful impacts on the planet (Harvey, 2019). Technology and innovation also play a role in developing these alternatives and changing the agriculture industry for the better.  

 

Land-use and agricultural productivity have greatly been discussed in class. When talking about land-use, increased agricultural productivity of land has led to a smaller amount being used, allowing urban land area to grow. The value of agricultural land could also be increasing due to increased population growth (leading to a greater demand for food) and new planting or harvesting technologies. Improvements in machinery as a factor of increased productivity was also a topic when discussing global scarcity.

 

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References

Agricultural total factor productivity growth indices for geographic regions, 1961-2016. [Data set]. USDA Economic Research Service (2019).

Harvey, F. (2019, January 28). How to feed the world - without killing everything. Retrieved April 22, 2020, from https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/jan/28/can-we-ditch-intensive-farming-and-still-feed-the-world

International Agricultural Productivity. (n.d.). Retrieved April 19, 2020, from https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity/

Zeigler, M. M. (2017, March 21). For a growing world, improving farm productivity is right goal. Retrieved April 22, 2020, from https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/energy-environment/324957-for-a-growing-world-improving-farm-productivity-is